Archive for the ‘Betting Psychology’ Category

Five Fundamental Rules of Gambling

Thursday, March 10th, 2011

1.      Assume every bet to be a losing bet.

Someone once wrote “don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose”, the worst piece of advice I have ever heard. What does it mean? Who can afford to lose money? If your one betting strategy is to bet what you can afford to lose, you have opened up the one thing, your emotions, that are guaranteed to leave you profitless.

Making a bet personal allows a huge variety of complications to enter the equation. However, if you expected every bet to lose you make yourself detached from the money and you can concentrate on the bet in hand.

How often have you heard of the doctor who smokes or drinks too much and can’t look after his health, the accountant who can’t control his own finances, because they don’t treat themselves like their clients or patients. The same is true of betting one must treat it as a business rather than a frivolous past time, if you wish to succeed. When you treat betting as a business transaction it is easier to remove your emotions and mistakes.

Take emotion out of your gambling, never bet on your favourite team, it clouds your judgement. There is a good reason bookies have betting kiosks at football grounds, they know the emotional attachment to a team clouds the supporters better judgement and these betting booths are the biggest cash cows available.   

2.      There is NO such thing as the “perfect system”.

There are thousands of “systems” available on the internet. Every punter will tell you they have the perfect system, unfortunately there is no one system to guarantee success.

Bookmakers on the other hand control their odds and work off something called the 110% market, which means that regardless of the result they will make a minimum 10% profit. In my time working at online bookmakers there was in fact rarely a day when the profit was less than 20% and was normally nearer 30%.  

Bookmakers as you can imagine are very stringent to their market percentages and, as such, change their prices accordingly, The are constantly monitoring each other’s prices and very rarely leave gaps for people to bet across markets.

Therefore whilst some people believe they have a system to beat the bookmakers they don’t. Unless you are making the market, i.e. a bookmaker or you are selling a “system” there is no guaranteed way to make a profit – long term.

3.      No substitute for knowledge

Rather than wasting money and time purchasing someone else’s SYSTEM, pick one sport, and even one market within a sport and become as knowledgeable as you can. If you don’t know what you are betting on you have no chance of being profitable long term.

If you have an interest in the English 1st division and make yourself as knowledgeable as you can and become “a specialist”. Make sure you know more about it than “the market makers” sitting in their office at Ladbrokes or William Hill, who are not rocket scientists, just ordinary people like you or I who happen to have an interest at sport and chosen to have their career at Ladbrokes. These people are setting the odds on hundreds markets, by being a specialist in one makes it easier for beat them.

4.      Tipsters who claim to offer percentage accuracy are talking horse shit!

If you come across a website or tipster who claims that they can be “65% sure Liverpool will beat Blackpool at home” or that “Sunderland have a 25% chance of beating Wigan away” log off immediately.

There are no statistical systems that can accurately predict results, because trust me these people would not need to waste time selling their systems online, they would just be raking in the money and have no need to sell their idea to others. If these systems were so foul proof they would not need other people to take their risk for them.

I set up a tipster website with a friend, who was an incredibly successful gambler and sold his tips. Although he gave some great tips, what he soon realised was that he was far more profitable betting himself. Gambling is not necessary about the horse you chose to win or the football team you chose to back, but the price you bet on this team, the emotions you attach to your bet and very importantly how you manage money.  

5.      The most vulnerable punter is a winning punter.

When you are winning you feel absolutely unstoppable, you are the nuts, nothing can go wrong. You can buy all the drinks, your next month’s rent is paid and you can start dreaming about that holiday, what could go wrong.

Stop. Go back to section 1. Your emotions are involved again, how could your judgement not be impaired with all these great faults going through your mind. Take yourself back, enjoy the feeling and remember every bet is a losing bet.

Imagine you are a footballer you score the first goal in front of 50,000 screaming fans, you feel amazing, you are the bollocks. Then your captain comes and taps you on the shoulder and reminds you there are still 70 minutes to go and you must focus on the job in hand, imagine it is still 0-0. The most professional sportsmen/women can switch back in an instant and finish the job in hand, Alex Ferguson is the master of making his players do this, Tiger Woods is phenomenal at it. As a gambler you must be able to do the same.

If you wish to start building a betting pot and putting some of these betting rules into practise we suggest matched betting by taking advantage of free bets that bookmakers have to offer.

Controlling your emotions.

Wednesday, July 7th, 2010

There are two things that any long term sports better can guarantee:

a)      He will have losing streaks

b)      He will have winning streaks

There are two defining factors that distinguish between a good sports bettor and a bad one, which is how these streaks are viewed and acted upon.

Think, for a moment, when you were last on a winning streak, every position was going your way, the money was rolling in, you were thinking about quitting your job and becoming a “professional full-time gambler”.

This is when things can turn ugly, especially if you believe you have a talent for picking winners, you become arrogant and start thinking that gambling is your calling in life.

As the arrogance kicks in, your bet stakes start getting bigger, you take short-cuts with your research, because your “gut-instincts” are so good, statistics don’t matter.

I’m sure you know what is likely to follow, after every up comes the down and a losing streak kicks in, every bet goes against you, last minute goals, goalkeeping howlers, you feel cursed that everything is conspiring against you. You either lose your nerve to place a bet, or even worse you go blindly chasing your loses, trying to pull it all back with on huge, long-shot, winner.

Stop trying to be the hare and follow the tortoise!

The way to success in sports betting, like most things in business and life is slow and steady, patience is a virtue. The most common problem in sports betting is that a string of 4 or 5 consecutive results whether positive or negative tends to change a bettors strategy. When looking at long-term statistics short terms streaks, whether winners or losers are quite normal.

Taking all of this into account, in the middle of your next streak, take a step away from the table and remember a few things:

Losing Streak

  • You don’t have a curse hanging over you.
  • Be patient; things WILL turn around
  • You’ve probably had some bad luck, good and bad luck always even themselves out EVENTUALLY.
  • Be positive

Winning Streak

  • You are NOT a genius
  • Do your research, don’t cut corners
  • You’ve probably had some luck, luck does not stay on your side forever.
  • Be humble.

 

All this “control your emotions jargon” probably sounds familiar if you have read any books on sports betting, stock market trading or the like. There are hundreds of pursuits you can apply it too.

If you have ever dabbled in the stock market. Chances are you probably know what it feels like when your stock starts heading the wrong way. All you can think about is how on earth am I going to get out of this mess. Not exactly the best state of mind to, remain calm, patient and in a position to spot the next great opportunity.

 Don’t forget things can go the other way. There are plenty of people who have throw a few luck darts at the FTSE wheel of fortune, seem their wealth swell, swanked around in their Range Rover or Bentley telling everyone that they are the next Warren Buffet, only for their luck to turn and be blown out of the water.

Being completely emotionless is nigh on impossible to achieve. Next time you lose a bet, due to a last minute goal, you are going to feel the sting, if you don’t you may as well not be human. However, what is important is that you start to understand how your emotions affect your actions, the sooner you begin to understand this the better your returns will become in betting and many other pursuits.

Learn to accept losing…. and ONLY THEN can you win.

Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

Do you get angry when you lose? Can’t stop thinking about what might have been? Quickly try to win your money back making rash decisions? If this is you, and you want to make any money at all sports betting, this must change NOW. If you can’t you need to STOP.

You must accept no matter how good you are at picking winners, however good your tipster is, you are going to lose and you can’t do anything about it. Those that succeed at betting or trading learn quickly that losing is part of winning.

Losing streaks are inevitable in life and in betting, due to the laws of probability.

Think you can work out a system that eliminates the losing streak, think again. Think you can purchase a system that eliminates the losing streak, think again. Although tipsters, system sellers and everyone else trying to make money out of this racket will try every marketing trick to make you think otherwise.

Wall Street Example

Had you invested in The Standard and Poors (S&P) 500 Index Fund in August 1997 and held for 10 years you would have seen a return of 89% according to Money Magazine (2008). However, had you not had your money invested for the best 20 days of that 10 year period you would have made a loss of 20%.

In other words for 3,630 days you would have made an aggregate loss, and for just 20 days an aggregate win. If you had got fed up of seeing negative returns you would have probably quit at a loss, and never seen those 20 days of excessive returns that would have seen your initial investment grow by 89% over that 10 year time period. The same is true, to an extent, of most sports betters.

Streaks happen – both winning and losing ones.

As much as we shout about our winning streaks, losing streaks happen, and more often than we like to admit. Even if you have a season where you have 60% winners, there will be days, weeks and even months when your overall return is down.

CONISTANT DAY-ON-DAY WINNING IS AN UNREALISTIC AIM. You need to learn to expect and accept inevitable losing streaks, to stay calm whilst they are happening and know that they will come to an end and importantly, stick to your money management rules. Don’t go chasing your loses or even stop. If you can learn to accept losing, you will be more able to control your emotions, think and bet with a clear head. Think long-term and if you average 55%+ winners in a year you will profit well.

Q: What does winning feel like?

A: It feels like losing.

To demonstrate why winning feels like losing look at some of these probabilities below. For example, let’s assume you are a 55% winning gambler, yet for all the world it feels like you are losing, here is your answer:

Assuming you averaged 4 bets per day and you won 55% of the time. Your statistical winning outcomes per day would be as follows.

Win Lose Probability
4 0 9.20%
3 1 29.9%
2 2 36.8%
1 3 20.1%
0 4 4.05%

Looking at the above table you can see that your chances of having a winning day are less than 40%. To win you would get 4/4 winners or 3/ 4 winners (9.20%+29.9%=39.1%). Therefore for over 60% of the time a 55% winner is not winning.

This is where mental strength comes to the fore. 60% of the time you will be breaking even or losing i.e getting 2/4, 1/ 4, 0/ 4 winners. On these days a badly disciplined better will chase his losses, take risks he wouldn’t normally take and even bet too much to win back his losses. Without realising it actually all he is doing is reducing his chances of success.

This goes beyond good money management and into psychology and mental strength. It takes tremendous discipline to accept that you are not going to win 60.9% of the time to profit, because it feels like you are losing.

KEY POINTS TO REMEMBER.

  • Even if you were to increase your winning picks to 60% of the time you would still not win on 52.50% of the days.
  • As contradictory as it sounds winning in fact feels like you are losing.
  • Learn to accept and embrace losing days, weeks and even months, hold your nerve, ride out the storm and you will make money sports betting.