Do you get angry when you lose? Can’t stop thinking about what might have been? Quickly try to win your money back making rash decisions? If this is you, and you want to make any money at all sports betting, this must change NOW. If you can’t you need to STOP.
You must accept no matter how good you are at picking winners, however good your tipster is, you are going to lose and you can’t do anything about it. Those that succeed at betting or trading learn quickly that losing is part of winning.
Losing streaks are inevitable in life and in betting, due to the laws of probability.
Think you can work out a system that eliminates the losing streak, think again. Think you can purchase a system that eliminates the losing streak, think again. Although tipsters, system sellers and everyone else trying to make money out of this racket will try every marketing trick to make you think otherwise.
Wall Street Example
Had you invested in The Standard and Poors (S&P) 500 Index Fund in August 1997 and held for 10 years you would have seen a return of 89% according to Money Magazine (2008). However, had you not had your money invested for the best 20 days of that 10 year period you would have made a loss of 20%.
In other words for 3,630 days you would have made an aggregate loss, and for just 20 days an aggregate win. If you had got fed up of seeing negative returns you would have probably quit at a loss, and never seen those 20 days of excessive returns that would have seen your initial investment grow by 89% over that 10 year time period. The same is true, to an extent, of most sports betters.
Streaks happen – both winning and losing ones.
As much as we shout about our winning streaks, losing streaks happen, and more often than we like to admit. Even if you have a season where you have 60% winners, there will be days, weeks and even months when your overall return is down.
CONISTANT DAY-ON-DAY WINNING IS AN UNREALISTIC AIM. You need to learn to expect and accept inevitable losing streaks, to stay calm whilst they are happening and know that they will come to an end and importantly, stick to your money management rules. Don’t go chasing your loses or even stop. If you can learn to accept losing, you will be more able to control your emotions, think and bet with a clear head. Think long-term and if you average 55%+ winners in a year you will profit well.
Q: What does winning feel like?
A: It feels like losing.
To demonstrate why winning feels like losing look at some of these probabilities below. For example, let’s assume you are a 55% winning gambler, yet for all the world it feels like you are losing, here is your answer:
Assuming you averaged 4 bets per day and you won 55% of the time. Your statistical winning outcomes per day would be as follows.
| Win | Lose | Probability |
| 4 | 0 | 9.20% |
| 3 | 1 | 29.9% |
| 2 | 2 | 36.8% |
| 1 | 3 | 20.1% |
| 0 | 4 | 4.05% |
Looking at the above table you can see that your chances of having a winning day are less than 40%. To win you would get 4/4 winners or 3/ 4 winners (9.20%+29.9%=39.1%). Therefore for over 60% of the time a 55% winner is not winning.
This is where mental strength comes to the fore. 60% of the time you will be breaking even or losing i.e getting 2/4, 1/ 4, 0/ 4 winners. On these days a badly disciplined better will chase his losses, take risks he wouldn’t normally take and even bet too much to win back his losses. Without realising it actually all he is doing is reducing his chances of success.
This goes beyond good money management and into psychology and mental strength. It takes tremendous discipline to accept that you are not going to win 60.9% of the time to profit, because it feels like you are losing.
KEY POINTS TO REMEMBER.
- Even if you were to increase your winning picks to 60% of the time you would still not win on 52.50% of the days.
- As contradictory as it sounds winning in fact feels like you are losing.
- Learn to accept and embrace losing days, weeks and even months, hold your nerve, ride out the storm and you will make money sports betting.
